In 2028, we will see outsourced field sales organizations operating in an extremely information-driven manner. We expect that more than 80 percent of our customer activity will be initiated electronically. Reps will be required to work faster and more effectively performing their various functions such as sales, marketing, design, support and service in a more integrated manner.

But, even in 2028, the need for the personal touch, relationships and clear communication between manufacturers, dealers and end-users will remain critical. We will still be in the service business, it is just that service will mean so much more.

Back-end efficiencies will drive much of the distribution channel’s evolution. Collaboration between manufacturers and distribution will play a critical role in breaking down the walls of “we” and “they” and bring an end to the cat and dog relationship among trading partners. Developing tighter working relationships between trading partners will build trust.

Manufacturer consolidation will occur as a result of customer demand to buy more from one source, allowing distribution to process fewer purchase orders. This will allow manufacturing’s distribution customers to further increase back-end efficiencies in such areas as warehousing and stocking.

The dealer community will consolidate, too. As a result, they will provide a broader base of services to their end-user customers. Distribution will be compensated for the breadth of service that’s provided as opposed to the volume of products flowing through the channel. This compensation would come from the operator as well as the manufacturer.

For operators, locally grown initiatives will take center plate and spawn a resurgence of smaller agricultural providers. Plus, rising fuel costs will force operators to rethink their approach to sourcing raw materials. This takes into account consumers’ preferences for foods that are more natural and have fewer preservatives. As a result, operators will place an increased emphasis on monitoring time and temperature. Operators will tie their equipment together to take advantage of heat generated by those products to support other kitchen functions, such as harnessing hot water generated by one piece of equipment to support the function of a booster heater. This will allow operators to make more turnkey use of resources.

Also hoping to capitalize on the green and sustainability trends, manufacturers will look to use more recyclable and locally available materials.

My grandfather always told me that there is no margin in predicting the future, but here are my thoughts.

Twenty years from now there will be some pretty dramatic changes in the foodservice industry. But primarily the changes will be what I would consider cosmetic in nature and not so much structural. From end-user customers to manufacturers to dealers, the names and players will change, but what they do or, in essence, how they do it probably won’t.

The equipment will change — not so much in what it does but in how it does it. Maybe a company will develop a dishwasher that needs no soap or recycles or reuses its own water so that the unit becomes almost self-contained. Perhaps a company will break the code for self-cleaning deep fryers with lifetime warranties (without ever leaking), or self-cleaning charbroiler grates. (Can you tell I worked in a kitchen once?)

And as far as the foodservice equipment distribution business, I think dealers will continue to evolve as they have for many years. As new technologies develop, we will become faster and better at everything from drawings, warehousing, quoting, coordinating, customer service, follow-up, tracking orders and researching products. But as to how a dealer’s basic business is conducted, and how much the end-users and manufacturers will depend on the dealer/distribution companies, I would bet it will be very similar to what it is today. It is easy to see that our current chain of distribution has evolved over the years, but I’m pretty sure it has survived this long because it has proven to be effective and efficient, and simply because there isn’t a better alternative.

In the short term, restaurants are struggling a little because of huge pricing pressures in areas such as labor, fuel and commodity items. So we look for ways to save labor, number one, by replacing bodies with equipment. As another way of addressing labor needs, we’re looking for vendors to bring in finished product as opposed to preparing product from scratch. These vendors can do it more efficiently than we can.

Value-added products are also important to us. Specifically, we’re looking for ways to have products hold longer and have greater shelf lives. As a result, we’ll probably see more use of the sous vide-style of cooking, which means products are made in advance and rethermalized to order. This process has been done in Europe for many years and provides a fresher approach when compared to freezing. While freezing breaks down food’s cell structure, sous vide prevents that from happening, holding everything in a more suspended state, which makes it more of a natural process.

In 20 years, I think all of those same issues will be amplified. Operators will have far less labor in the back of the house. Most products will be brought in and actual cooking in restaurants will be very rare, except where there’s an exhibition cooking application.

We’re seeing more and more restaurant food eaten in places other than restaurants. For this reason, takeout and carryout will grow more popular as more consumers want restaurant-style food in their own homes. They will be able to purchase restaurant-quality food in a walk-up store, similar to what’s happening in Europe, thanks to the use of sous vide applications.

More automation, I think, is really the wave of the future. In the future, we might be more likely to walk into a restaurant where a customer orders electronically, instead of placing orders with a person. After paying electronically, the meal then comes out to the customer in a mechanized way. This may seem futuristic, but it could happen.

I believe the industry will change as a whole but certain things will remain the same. For example, what will change is the full-service restaurants’ ability to garnish more information from our POS systems that will allow us to be more productive, and better understand our clientele. It’s kind of a nice hospitality piece: We can find out when was the last time they dined here, what’s their favorite wine, etc. But even these technological efficiencies will not replace the need to interact with customers. You will have to be out there personally and physically for the hospitality piece to work.

What technology brings is the ability to be more efficient and manage your business. At the same time, you’ll be out of business if you don’t pay close attention to the hospitality component. Guests still want that romantic wonderful feeling of going to a great restaurant and being taken care of by the professionals working there.

In other segments, technology will aid in the areas such as speed of service. For example, fastcasual concepts will allow consumers to submit their order via a text message and by the time they get there they can pick up their meals and go. The foodservice industry will leverage applications developed in other industries.

Looking at hotels, as an example, today you can go on their web sites and pick out your room. Sooner or later in the restaurant industry you’re going to be able to visit a web site to make a reservation and pick your table.

For years, designers have worked with chefs and restaurateurs to maximize the space in the kitchen. Our efforts have resulted in some very progressive and innovative designs allowing chefs to express their talent while keeping the construction and operating costs under control. Where is the next variation in reduced space within the kitchen going to come from? New equipment? New food preparation methods?

The answer already exists, with the growing quality and reduced cost of pre-prepared foods. Today, restaurants buy vegetables cleaned and cut to their specifications and meats that are pre-butchered to meet the menu of a high-end steakhouse.

The future of the kitchen is that the footprint will get even smaller as center of the plate (proteins) are refined and processed. A kitchen that was fully outfitted with a cold prep area and complete à la carte cooking line with exhaust hood will be reduced to a couple of hot water baths, cold support and a dish-up area. These kitchens will be as much as 100 percent smaller than today’s. The kitchen of the future will be reduced to refrigeration and rethermalizing units, and possibly a fryer or two depending on the menu.

Less heavy equipment will result in reduced utility needs and a more environmentally friendly kitchen. This can be seen in healthcare foodservice as operators continue to find cost-effective ways in increasing patient satisfaction while holding costs down.

Total equipment sales will continue to increase because of two mega trends: Consumers will continue to increase their restaurant expenditures, as they have for the past 20 years from 25 percent to 50 percent of their food dollar, and to probably 75 percent in 2028; and new high-performance equipment will enable restaurateurs to deliver more menu items with less labor, in less space and in less time. This “high performance” technology will have a shorter life cycle because it will be continually replaced to get better performance similar to personal computing technology where equipment is replaced every threeto- four years, but not because it is “worn out.” So in 20 years, computer and internet technology will merge with foodservice equipment and these products will begin to dominate the replacement market.

The types of foods we eat, where we eat, and when we eat will continue to evolve over the next 20 years. This will affect the types of equipment and supplies required by foodservice operators to meet customers’ changing needs. Endusers will require products that are easier to operate and offer improved reliability and versatility.

In regards to the supply chain, I believe the traditional roles of manufacturers, reps, dealers, consultants and service agencies will remain strong and intact. We will continue to see a large number of foreign importers and manufacturers enter the North American market. How these new entries take their products to market remains to be seen.

Manufacturers’ reps will continue to provide a valued role as the most efficient and cost-effective way for manufacturers to take their product to market. I also expect the services that rep firms offer to continue to expand to provide greater value to our customers.

The service agent of the future will have to be able to service both cold and hot equipment. We need to have this level of balance in our skill set because it’s something the customer demands. At the same time, service agents will continue to become more involved in facilitating the proper installation of equipment. In doing so, we avoid the temptation to sell equipment or engage in any other activities that detract from our core competencies, as this is our niche and we are in a very complex trade.

When getting involved with installation, service agents take the equipment from cradle to grave. That benefits not only us, but also the customer and the dealer, because they look good when the equipment functions well.

Data collection represents another significant point of emphasis for service agents moving forward. Manufacturers are asking us to have data readily available to help their customers identify life-cycle costs for individual pieces of equipment. There’s quite the buzz about this throughout the industry today and this will fast become one of the service agent’s core competencies. Fortunately, we have the tools in our hands to provide this information and will play a major role in facilitating this.

Foodservice customers are increasingly more adventurous and constantly looking for new dining experiences, so operators need to be constantly testing new menu ideas to stay fresh and exciting. This trend is likely to only grow more intense in the next decades, and have major food/beverage and equipment supply chain implications. To get onboard with emerging trends expected to grow into the future, such as Asian steamed buns concepts, operators need proper supply chain support — specialized preparation, cooking/ steaming and storage cookware and equipment, as well as non-traditional ingredients. All are critical to success.

Operators are turning green en masse for two reasons: These practices represent cost savings; and consumers vote with their wallets and increasingly patronize businesses that demonstrate their green initiatives. It’s important to remember that the push to go green is not a fad. Instead, it is a solid and growing movement that will leave those operators not willing or able to adapt at a disadvantage. Concepts like organics and sustainable seafood are among the hottest trends right now, according to our research, and I see these turning into perennial favorites 20 years from now, much like many ethnic cuisines that used to be novel are now universally popular.

Operators must react to many other trends to grow their businesses, including food safety, growing their workforce and controlling costs. As the world figuratively shrinks, global influences will have a huge impact on all of these factors. I see the industry looking to foreign markets to source equipment, ingredients, technology and even employees more and more in the future. At the same time, restaurant industries in foreign countries will look to U.S. manufacturers and suppliers to grow their businesses.

On the subject of labor, we need to look in the mirror today to see the future. Unless there is an increase in birth rates — and the experts appear to think otherwise — or the federal government develops a workable immigration policy, the challenge will be a shrinking labor pool for an increased number of jobs.

With respect to the labor projection, manufacturers and operators will have to engage in serious collaboration to develop labor-saving equipment that will permit faster cooking and point-of-service. The other area that will really need attention is cutting back the amount of time and personnel needed for cashiering duties. Other future concerns have to do with the projected challenge of trying to ascertain which of the environmentally friendly and costefficient energy technologies should be applied both universally to the foodservice industry as well as to specific segments. The absence of a standard approach and nomenclature will lead to chaos among the equipment manufacturers.

Consumer preferences, without question, are the toughest to forecast. There have been quantum changes over the last 20 years relative to bottled beverages, just-in-time or point-of-service cooking, and the increasing demand for even more variety within the same or slightly expanded space footprints. If there is to be a “warming of the ocean” change, it will be in the growth of small boutique-style farms where the owners have established direct field-to-fork relationships with the operators. As that growth continues, the larger corporate farms, due to labor shortages, will be forced to become even more mechanized or magically be transformed into boutique farmettes. One example of this last trend is evident in how the large brewers have decided to develop socalled limited barrel production craft beers.

Undergraduate schools will finally get the message that they need to develop courses and short-term (two-four week) opportunities for mid-level managers and culinary personnel to take in anticipation of the next step up the career ladder. This concept goes hand-in-hand with the need for the various associations to provide unbiased, substantive educational content for their members.

In my mind, the most effective way to better meet customers’ needs is on the back end of a transaction and the essence of this is speed. In their personal lives, people are used to logging onto a web site, ordering a product and having it delivered the next day. That level of speed has not been realized in the foodservice industry on a wide-scale basis.

To achieve this level of speed, better cooperation in the form of data integration among trading partners will be critical. This means when we as dealers send an order to a manufacturer we have access to their stock levels in a more uniform format to help us better understand that they have the inventory to meet that demand. This will facilitate step two, which is for the dealer to push that information to the customer. By giving them quicker order confirmations and answers, we will allow our customers to coordinate related services.

E-mail is a wonderful tool that helped increase the speed of communication and changed the way we do business. While still an important communication tool, e-mail is overloaded at the moment. That’s why it is much more advantageous to establish a point-of-data interchange that allows a dealer to access a screen that will list all of the orders placed with a variety of vendors and the status of each of these transactions. Right now, if we place 12 orders with 12 different vendors, we get 12 different e-mails confirming them. That’s not very efficient. A unified format data feed would solve this issue.